Are Rockets primed for first-round postseason exit again?

This year’s Houston Rockets team has been one of the most inconsistent iterations of the team seen in recent memory. More over, the Rockets have been one of the most inconsistent ball clubs in the entire league. 

They’re far from a lock to beat the league’s relatively easier opponents. In fact, I tend to get a bit more concerned when I see a less talented team on the schedule.

(Although the tanking teams will likely be mailing it in from this point on. The 2026 draft class is that good).

11 of Houston’s losses have been against teams below. 500. 

The Rockets would have the NBA’s best record if they were able to win those games. It’s clear that the Rockets get up for games against some of the league’s better teams. 

Which begs the question of how far this year’s Rockets team will advance in the postseason. I think it’ll be much like last season — feisty team that will be a difficult matchup in the first round, and probably beat up their opponent, even in a losing effort, by taking a series to seven games.

Unless the Rockets face the Lakers in the first round, which would be the matchup if the postseason started today.

Otherwise, it’s difficult to view the Rockets as contenders. For one, they’re missing two of their most important players on the roster, in Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams.

Those two represent $40 million in salary, sitting on the bench. Then you have to dive into the Rockets’ warts. 

Turnovers — which will absolutely lose you a game and eradicate a lead rather quickly. Not capitalizing on trips at the charity stripe (Houston ranks 26th in foul shooting, as of this writing).

Stagnant offense. Houston ranks in the bottom eight in passes made per game, bottom five in points created by assists and bottom eight in potential assists.

Then there’s the Amen Thompson positional alignment. It’s clear that he’s best when cutting to the baseline and/or getting downhill. Attacking and staying in that dunker spot. 

Not standing at the top of the key or behind the 3-point line. That plays into the hands of the defense, because he’s going to be tempted to take an open three. 

But any 3-point shot by Thompson is essentially a turnover because it’s a bad shot and/or possession.

Then there’s the over reliance on Kevin Durant. He’s been outer-worldly and likely in line for an All-NBA selection.

But teams will take that away in the postseason and make Houston’s role players step up.

Add up the sum of the parts, and you get a fairly good team, capable of winning 50 games and being a tough first round matchup. 

Anything beyond that will depend heavily on the matchup.