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Free agency is almost here. This is an exciting time for most teams, but not so much for the Dallas Cowboys. While many other teams are busy handing out massive contracts like Halloween candy, the front office in Frisco typically retreats into a shell of fiscal conservatism that only the likes of Scrooge McDuck truly appreciates. As a division rival inks a big-name player, Cowboys supporters are left refreshing their feeds only for news of them signing a backup long snapper. This is the world we live in.
Yes, Jerry Jones has once again suggested the franchise will spend more in free agency this year, but based on past statements of a similar ilk, it’s hard to believe in it to any significant degree.
The Cowboys history shows they are free-agency averse. They just don’t like it. Instead, they focus their attention on the other elements of the roster-building process. Drafting is their bread and butter. For the better part of a decade, they were red-hot drafting geniuses, reeling in All-Pro after All-Pro. They’ve cooled off in recent years, but are still pretty good in this area.
They have also shown a willingness to let go of draft capital and go out and get a player they need. Mostly, this comes in the form of giving up Day 3 draft picks for a reclamation project, who they hope will magically enter the building and become an immediate contributor. Sometimes that’s worked. Other times it hasn’t. Whether it’s the draft or trading, the Cowboys are up for some fun, but when it comes to free agency, they just don’t want to dabble very much.
The reluctance to spend big is not without merit, as historical data shows that massive free agent outlays are rarely a sound use of resources. Many high-priced acquisitions suffer from a production cliff, where their performance drops significantly after the first year of a massive new deal. Furthermore, there is a clear negative correlation between spending and success. Teams that lead the league in free agent spending often finish with losing records, while the most successful franchises tend to be the thriftiest.
Even teams that experience immediate improvement frequently see their win totals decrease the following year as the reality of the contract sets in. This concept of diminishing returns proves that the value added per dollar shrinks as the contract price swells. Buying a championship in March is a bit like buying a luxury car that immediately loses half its value the moment you drive it off the lot and into a 6-11 season.
These consequences of reckless free agent spending aren’t always apparent, and it’s a topic of huge debate, especially within Cowboys circles. The team doesn’t use free agency, so clearly, that has to be a big reason for their failures, right? That’s a sentiment of many, but let’s put some data behind the argument.
Jason Fitzgerald from Over The Cap recently did the legwork and gathered the data for every NFL team’s free agent spending for the last six offseasons. The data includes signings of at least $2 million between the months of March and April. When you sort the data, there are some interesting findings.
First, the obvious one. The Cowboys’ frugality is exposed. It’s a surprise to very few that the Cowboys have spent the lowest amount of any NFL team in free agency over the last six offseasons. And it’s not even close. While other teams have spent hundreds of millions to bolster their rosters, the Cowboys have operated with a budget that suggests they are paying their outside free agents with gift cards to the team’s pro shop.
While this news seems unsettling on the surface, winning the headlines in March rarely translates into winning in the fall. Data shows a strong correlation between high free agent spending and fewer total wins over the long term. Breaking down average wins vs. average yearly free agent spending for the last seasons provides the following chart.
Breaking it out even further, let’s plot each NFL team in ascending order of free agent spending, as well as plotting their seasonal average win total.
Many of the league’s most consistent winners frequently rank toward the bottom of the spending charts. Conversely, most of the usual suspects notorious for losing have been slinging out the cash. Throwing money at every available breakout performer is a strategy often reserved for desperate general managers trying to save their jobs rather than those building a sustainable winner. It turns out, Super Bowls aren’t for sale despite many teams being determined to overpay for a player that their former team didn’t want to retain.
While one could make a case that the Cowboys are in some good company, being with the other low spenders, they are sitting on the extreme left. They are a one-man wolfpack and represent the only data point for the $10 million or less tier. Avoiding the top of the market is wise, but could the Cowboys benefit from moving slightly into the lower-middle spending tier? Teams that maintain winning records often find success by being selective rather than completely absent. By targeting specific, high-impact players who fit a clear need, the Cowboys could bridge the gap between being a playoff participant and a true contender without compromising their long-term cap health.
In theory, this could work. Granted, they still need good coaching, and the players still need to make plays in January, but this slightly more aggressive approach in free agency might serve them better. They do not need to be the biggest spenders at the party, but they should at least show up and bring a bottle of something other than tap water. Finding the right balance between cheap and extravagant could be a difference maker for them.
Of course, it’s not like the Cowboys haven’t ventured down this path before. Historical evidence from within the organization also supports the idea that bigger swings often miss the mark. When the Cowboys have ventured a little deeper into the pool, the results have been underwhelming at best. The last fifteen years have seen several higher-priced disappointments, and these instances keep serving as a reminder that a higher price tag does not guarantee a higher floor.
And adding even more fuel to the bargain bin appeal, the Cowboys have found their greatest external value from low-cost investments. They have actually done a solid job filling roster holes without mortgaging the future. This approach allows for flexibility and provides a much better return on investment than chasing those shiny new objects that often leave teams unfulfilled. See for yourself. Every time they try to get just a little fancy, it doesn’t work out, whereas they have had countless contributions from low-cost purchases.
The Cowboys should look to open their wallet a little further this year to find key contributors, especially with a new defensive coordinator in Christian Parker, who inherits a defense with many holes. He’ll require some specific ingredients to run the defense he wants to run.
While the front office must avoid the lure of a spending spree that statistically leads to problems, a more proactive approach to the next tier of free agency could possibly increase their chances a little. Selective aggression is the goal, as going overboard is not the ask. Do their due diligence and make the effort to find the right type of guys to add to the roster. That’s all that fans want. It guarantees nothing, but at least give it a go. Sometimes, the smallest changes have the greatest impact.