The tank rolls on: Who might pass the Mavericks in wins the rest of the way?

Coming into Tuesday’s NBA slate, the Dallas Mavericks (21-36) sat seventh from the bottom of the league standings. Just the Utah Jazz (18-40), the Washington Wizards (16-40), the New Orleans Pelicans (16-42), the Brooklyn Nets (15-42), the Indiana Pacers (15-43) and the sad Sacramento Kings (13-46) entered play with worse records than the Mavericks.

With a loaded 2026 NBA Draft class looming, all eyes in those markets are now firmly affixed upon the Tankathon standings, with visions of Dybantsa and Boozer dancing in fanbases’ heads. The Mavs may not have what it takes to get all the way to one of the top 2026 prospects, but the player available at the seventh overall pick this year may be more impactful than the second overall pick next year. Getting the seventh pick in this year’s draft would be a win.

But can the Mavericks’ tank gain any precious ground on any of the six teams ahead of them in the race to the bottom? That’s why they play the final 26 of the 82-game NBA season.

Dallas’ strength of schedule the rest of the way is 11th in the league. That’s a point in their favor for piling up more losses over the next month and a half. The fact that they came into Tuesday’s slate of games 3.5 games up on the Jazz, who sit at sixth in the Tankathon standings, and a full five games up on the Wizards in fifth, doesn’t bode as well. In fact, the Mavs came into play Tuesday just one game behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the eighth-worst record in the NBA, inching a step closer toward moving from seventh to the eighth-best lottery odds with their 123-114 win at the Brooklyn Nets.

The tank is losing ground at the moment, in light of the Mavs’ back-to-back wins at Brooklyn and Indiana.

Snapshot: Race to the bottom

After a cursory glance at the remaining schedule, I’ve got the Mavericks going 7-18 in their final 25 games, for a painful 28-54 record when it’s all said and done. That’s based on six scheduled wins and a belief that Dallas, a true blind squirrel, will find one more nut somewhere along the way.

If that happens, the Jazz would have to go 10-14 in their final 24 to tie the Mavs in the standings and bring conference record into play to decide the lottery-odds tiebreaker, or 11-13 to pass Dallas. The Jazz have an easier path to wins the rest of the way with their remaining strength of schedule at 21st in the league, but hoping they go 11-13 down the stretch seems like a bit of a stretch at this point.

The Mavs and the Jazz have already played all four of their matchups this year, splitting the four games between them.

It’s the same story with the New Orleans Pelicans. They’ve got more scheduled wins left in their final 23 games than the Mavericks have in their last 24, but they’d have to go 11-12 to finish out the year to give the Mavs a legitimate shot to pass them in the Tankathon standings. It looks like it’s going to be more ground than Dallas can make up at this point. It would be even harder to catch Washington, and their tank is emboldened by the fourth-best remaining strength of schedule in the NBA the rest of the way.

It looks more likely that the Mavericks will stay at the seventh-best odds in the lottery. In fact, it’s more likely that they slide to eighth than move up to sixth.

There are a lot of variables in play here. The sheer will of each team’s tanking effort is one that’s hard to quantify here. The Mavs, for instance, have consistently played hard in the face of a losing season, forcing their way into clutch loss after clutch loss along the way. The Jazz, on the other hand, are more blatant with their tank in terms of roster management.

At this point, if the Mavs are going to gain any ground, it will likely come at Utah’s expense, but it’s hard to see that happening. If you squint hard, you could convince yourself that Utah has 10 wins left on the schedule, but bad teams find a way to lose. It’s what bad teams do. And the Jazz are very much a team that has decided to be bad.

Keep an eye on this space, though, Mavs fans, because if Dallas can rattle off losses to Sacramento and Memphis on Thursday and Friday, or even split those two games, they’ll still have a chance to sneak past Utah before the year is out. Those would be two very valuable losses.