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Tyler Rogers is a right-handed, submarine style pitcher. He’s 35. The Jays signed him to a three-year, $37 million contract (with a vesting option for a fourth year at $11 million). Signing a 35-year-old reliever for three or four years, generally, would seem like a bad idea, but then Rogers isn’t your average reliever.
We were lucky enough to get to watch Rogers pitch yesterday (actually, we saw two different Rogers (Rogerses? I’m not sure what the plural for Rogers is) pitch yesterday, Grant Rogers also pitched). Tyler did allow a home run, but, with it being spring training, that didn’t bother me. I was just happy to get to watch him pitch.
He releases the ball at just 16 inches above the ground (well, above the mound). He throws a sinker (74.5% of the time, 83.5 mph) and a slider (25.5%). Baseball Savant tells us that the sinker drops 13 inches. The slider has 14 inches of vertical rise.
The Jays seem to think there is a value to have pitchers who throw from different release points. Trey Yesavage throwing from straight over the top, Rogers from near the ground, Chase Lee (should he make the team) throwing straight sidearm and of course, the others all somewhere in between straight over the top and sidearm, which will give opposing teams many different release points to worry about. Add in Dylan Cease who manages to hide the ball, sort of, behind his head, before releasing the ball.
Rogers doesn’t throw hard. Baseball Savant has him in the first percentile for ‘Fastball Velocity’. If he loses speed on his pitches as he ages, well, he’ll still be in the first percentile. Also his Whiff % is in the first percentile and hit Strikeout % is in the 8th percentile. He’s not going to be blowing anyone away.
On the other hand, he’s:
- 99th percentile in Average Exit Velocity.
- 100th percentile in Walk Rate.
- 100th percentile in Barrell %.
- 95th percentile in Hard Hit %.
- 98th percentile in Ground Ball %.
So, people don’t walk against him, don’t hit the ball hard against him and hit the ball on the ground against him. All that, along with our excellent infield defense, should add up to a very effective pitcher.
He’s also a guy that can be used a lot. He’s played seven seasons in the MLB and has led the league in relief appearances four times. Last season he pitched in 81 games. I feel the urge to point out that that means he pitched in half the games his team played, but you guys are smart people, you already know that. In those 81 games, he had an 1.98 ERA. Batters hit .229/.248/.302 against him.
You think that John used Louis Varland a lot……
I’ve long felt that submarine pitchers and sidearm pitchers tend to do great their first year with a team, good the second year and not so good the third. But, Rogers pitched seven seasons (well six and a half) with the Giants and his best season was the last one. So I’m not worried that he’ll lose effectiveness because of teams getting used to facing his unusual delivery.
I do worry that he might lose some effectiveness (is that a word) as he moves into his late thirties. But then, he already throws softer than any other pitcher in the MLB, so will it be a big deal if he loses a couple mph off of that? That’s a good question.
It always seems to me that a pitcher with a marginal fastball (90-92 mph) who loses a couple of mph has troubles. Rogers, of course, doesn’t come close to that 90 mph. If he drops from 83 mph to 80 mph will that make a difference? Who knows.
ZiPS thinks that Rogers will pitch in 68 games, with a 3.72 ERA, with 16 walks and 44 strikeouts.
Here is a quick video of him pitching.