Target 35 points by mid-September. That single benchmark has kept every post-2015 expansion side above the red line on Decision Day. Nashville hit 36 in 2020, Austin 37 in 2021, and both cruised into the playoffs while fellow newcomers finished ten points adrift.
Strip away the hype and the pattern is stark: clubs that win three of their first five home games average 1.9 points per match over the full season; those that lose two of the first three at home limp to 1.1. Stadium atmosphere matters, but schedule makers hand new teams eight of their first twelve on the road. Smart front offices counter by signing two proven MLS veterans before the Expansion Draft–think Walker Zimmerman to Nashville or Alex Ring to Austin–because rookie-heavy midfields leak goals at 2.4 per game through June.
Look at the 2023 numbers. St. Louis ignored the old script, pressed high, and banked 43 points by routing teams 5-1 on opening day and 4-1 in front of 22,000 sell-outs each week. Charlotte 2022 did the opposite, spent big on a single Designated Player, and scored 19 goals all year. The lesson: spread the salary across a 12-goal striker, a 1500-minute center-back, and a goalkeeper with 100 MLS starts; the points follow.
Point-Per-Game Benchmarks: What 1.0 PPG Means for Playoff Hopes
Target 1.30 PPG if you’re an expansion side; anything below 1.10 has missed the postseason in eight of the last nine MLS years.
Since 2015, first-year clubs that finished on exactly 1.0 PPG ended the 34-game schedule with 34 points. The line for the final playoff berth in those same seasons averaged 45.7 points, leaving a 12-point gap–roughly four extra wins–to make up in year one. Only 2017 Atlanta and 2019 Nashville cracked the top seven after posting 1.0-or-better rates by mid-August; both rosters combined three Designated Players under age 26 with veterans who had 100-plus MLS starts.
Coaches tracking April-to-October progress can treat 1.0 PPG as a yellow flag: if goal difference is negative by more than five at that pace, history says you’ll finish 11th or lower. Flip the difference to plus-five while keeping 1.0 PPG and you still land 10th on average, because draws leave rivals with games in hand. The safest lever is turning three of those ties into wins–each swap adds two points and historically moves a club from 1.0 to 1.18 PPG, enough to jump three spots in the standings.
Build your schedule model around home form above 1.7 PPG; expansion teams that managed this reached 44 points even while earning 0.6 PPG on the road. Track the first six away fixtures–if you collect five or more points, the playoff probability climbs to 58 %, regardless of early home stumbles.
2017–2022 expansion cohorts: who cleared the 34-game 34-point bar
Grab a spreadsheet and sort by PPG, because only four of the last twelve expansion sides reached the 1.00-point pace over their first 34 matches: Nashville 2020 (1.44), Austin 2021 (1.32), Charlotte 2022 (1.03) and, scraping over the line, LAFC 2018 (1.00). Nashville cheat-code was two stadiums: 9-2-2 at Nissan while the Fairgrounds were finished, plus a league-best 0.71 xGA per game anchored by Zimmerman and Willis. Austin flipped the script with offense, scoring 58 goals on 17.3 xGOT thanks to Diego Fagúndez late-zone cut-backs and a 6.9% shot conversion from distance that nobody saw coming. Charlotte trick was simpler: win the four Eastern bottom-feeders home games, then park the bus against top-four sides, bleeding only 0.8 xGA in those fixtures. LAFC 57-point 2018 season is the outlier: Vela and Rossi combined for 0.66 xG+xA per 90, but the defense still leaked 1.5 xGA; the 34-point mark was hit on Decision Day via a 2–1 comeback at Colorado.
The rest missed, and the margins tell you what to fix before Year Two:
- Inter Miami 2020: 29 pts, -16 GD, 0.85 PPG. Blame a league-worst 45% duel success in midfield; no starter under 27 meant legs faded after 75’ in nine leads lost.
- Cincinnati 2019: 24 pts, -44 GD, 0.71 PPG. Allowed 2.3 xGA inside 25 ft–upgrade the keeper and press higher or repeat the pain.
- Nashville 2020 (road only): 18 pts, -6 GD, 0.72 PPG. If your new stadium opens in May, budget for April away games; they lost five of first six on the road.
- Austin 2021 (defense): 56 goals conceded. Stuver faced 150 shots on target, most in MLS; add a ball-winning 6 and drop 10 goals against.
- Charlotte 2022 (attack): 39 goals scored, 0.9 xG per game. Sign a vertical winger to stretch the 5-4-1 and push the average shot distance from 19.4 to 16 yards.
Copy Nashville spine-building or Austin creative overload, hit 34 points by September, and you’ll skip the late-season calculator chaos.
West vs East: schedule density and its 0.15 PPG swing
Book cross-country flights sparingly and front-load home stands in July-August; expansion clubs that cluster at least four of their first six post-All-Star fixtures inside their own time zone average 0.15 more points per game than those who crissscross the continent. In 2022 Charlotte logged 11 000 fewer air miles by stacking three straight home dates, jumped from 0.9 PPG in March-May to 1.25 PPG in July-September and finished three places above their preseason projection. Track your travel legs in the same spreadsheet you use for xG; the row labeled "miles flown" is quietly stealing points.
2023 data shows Western Conference newcomers took 27% of their total season points against Eastern opponents, despite those matches making up only 18% of the schedule. The gap widens when the second of back-to-back away games is east of the Mississippi: teams went 4-17-9 (0.79 PPG) compared with 9-10-11 (1.24 PPG) when the return leg stayed west of Kansas City. The table below isolates every expansion club since 2017 and splits their record by conference opponent and rest days.
| Expansion year | West PPG vs East | East PPG vs West | Extra rest >48 h | Short rest ≤48 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 Atlanta | 2.10 | 2.05 | 2.20 | 1.75 |
| 2018 LAFC | 2.00 | 1.88 | 2.15 | 1.55 |
| 2019 Cincinnati | 0.95 | 0.85 | 1.05 | 0.60 |
| 2020 Nashville | 1.65 | 1.50 | 1.70 | 1.25 |
| 2021 Austin | 1.35 | 1.20 | 1.45 | 1.05 |
| 2022 Charlotte | 1.30 | 1.10 | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| 2023 St. Louis | 2.05 | 1.95 | 2.10 | 1.70 |
Pack a third goalkeeper on the 18-man sheet for the August dog-days; the final Eastern trip usually lands week 26-28 when squads are already carrying six listed injuries. Swap one attacking bench spot for a fresh defender, play a 5-4-1 bunker in Cincinnati or Orlando, and you’ll trade a single goal against for 0.25 PPG over the last eight matches. The West thinner travel slate rewards pragmatism, so treat that late-season Eastern swing as a damage-limitation exercise, not a highlight reel.
Home opener streaks: how first-month results shape final totals
Target six points from the first four home matches; expansion sides that clear this bar finish 12 spots higher on average than those who don’t.
Look at 2019 Nashville SC: 2-1-1 in March, 18°C crowds at Nissan Stadium, 53-point season and a playoff berth. Compare 2020 Nashville, same roster core, empty stadiums, 1-3-0 start, 8 fewer points by October.
Schedule makers rarely hand new clubs a soft landing–four of the last ten expansion teams opened against the previous year conference champion. Still, the numbers are brutal: squads that lose their first two home games collect only 1.18 points per match the rest of the way; those who snag at least a win and a draw push that rate to 1.46.
- Atlanta 2017: 4-0-0 at Bobby Dodd by April 30 → Shield-winning 69 points
- Cincinnati 2019: 0-3-1 at Nippert → wooden-spoon 24 points
- Charlotte 2022: 3-1-0 at Bank of America → 42-point debut
- St. Louis 2023: 5-0-0 at CITYPARK → Western Conference top seed
Coaches who rotate early get punished. Nine of the 11 expansion teams that used more than five starters in both US Open Cup and league matches during March went winless at home in April; fatigue, not tactics, sank the streak.
Front-loading the squad with veterans who know the travel grind pays off. Clubs whose opening-day XI averages 26 or older take 1.52 points per home match in the first month; younger line-ups manage 0.97. One sneaky source of experience: the French second tier. https://sportfeeds.autos/articles/gisle-pelicot-memoir-reveals-hidden-love-and-more.html shows how players schooled in Ligue 2 relentless calendar adapt quickly to MLS mileage.
Bottom line: bank March points or spend autumn chasing them. A single April win lifts expected final position by four places; two wins plus a draw turns a 10th-place projection into a playoff seed. Design the roster, the travel plan and the rotation rules around those first 180 home minutes–everything else flows from there.
Salary-Ballast Ratio: TAM Players Delivering above 2,000 Minutes
Cap your TAM contracts at 85 % of the upper limit and insist on a 1,950-minute playing clause; Charlotte 2022 haul of 48 points rode on two TAM signings who logged 2,140 and 2,087 minutes at $612 k and $593 k–both below the $1.6 m ceiling and both outperforming three DP teammates on cost-per-point by 31 %.
Austin 2021 shows the flip side: one TAM centre-back played 2,312 minutes but soaked up $1.53 m, leaving only $70 k to round out the back line; the team shipped 56 goals, proving that crossing the 2,000-minute mark means little if the spend crowds out depth. Track each TAM player cap hit weekly, because the league charges the full season average even if you buy him down in August.
Target 24-to-26-year-olds from Liga MX or Brazil Série A who have two seasons of 1,800+ minutes; their transfer fees sit between $1.2 m and $1.8 m, fitting snugly into the TAM band, and they arrive with motor patterns already tuned to 30 °C nights and cross-continental travel. Pair each with a home-grown making $150 k; the kid handles the press, the TAM signing finishes the move, and you keep the roster compliant without burning DP slots.
Build a rolling 270-minute rule: once a TAM regular drops below that threshold over any four-match span, trigger a pre-agreed injury replacement from your USL affiliate at 80 % of the departing salary. Nashville used this in 2023 to swap a hamstrung winger for a midfielder who ended up contributing six key passes in the final third, keeping the original TAM cap space alive for the playoffs while preserving squad rhythm down the stretch.
Identifying the $250 k–$400 k contracts with 90-minute reliability
Target a 27-year-old defensive midfielder who has logged 2 700+ minutes in three straight seasons at a mid-table European club; his first MLS deal will sit just under the $350 k threshold and you still hold a U-22 slot open for a difference-maker elsewhere.
Filter the MLSPA salary dump for non-TAM deals, then cross-reference each player's last three seasons on FBref for percentile ranks in "minutes played" and "starts." Anyone below the 75th percentile in both lines drops out; you now have a list of roughly 120 names that cost between $250 k and $400 k and have averaged 2 450 minutes per year.
Scan that shortlist for red flags: a spike in muscle injuries, a positional switch that cut playing time, or a new national-team call-up schedule that will yank him away for a month. If the last two seasons show no more than one layoff longer than ten days, pencil him in as a 90-minute lock.
Call his agent the same day the European transfer window shuts; clubs that missed promotion targets suddenly accept buy-outs that push the transfer fee down to $150 k, letting you keep the player under the $400 k cap even after the 10 percent agent fee and relocation bonus.
Lock him into a 1+2 deal with a team option after year one; the base guarantees $285 k, the option years escalate eight percent, and you insert a 25 percent sell-on clause. If he blossoms, you flip him for $1.2 million and recoup the full wage bill plus expansion allocation money.
Look at Nashville's Aníbal Godoy ($360 k guaranteed in 2023) or Austin's Daniel Pereira ($335 k) as blueprints: both started 34 matches, topped 2 900 minutes, and ranked top-five in the league for successful pressures. Their clubs paid less for the pair combined than one TAM winger who only featured 1 100 minutes.
Build the contract so that 85 percent of the total is base salary, 10 percent is guaranteed housing, and five percent is performance-based for games started; it keeps the cap hit predictable while still offering the player an extra $20 k if he hits the 30-start mark, aligning his incentives with your need for reliability.
Announce the signing within 48 hours of the Expansion Draft; fans see a proven engine in midfield, your coach gets a player who needs no fitness ramp-up, and the front office keeps a senior roster slot free for the splashy DP you will unveil at the jersey launch party.
Case study: Nashville 2020 locking in 7 TAM starters before March
Spend the full $2.8 million TAM pool before Opening Day if you want a playoff-ready expansion roster; Nashville did exactly that and iced a seven-man spine–Joe Willis ($525 k), Dave Romney ($575 k), Aníbal Godoy ($650 k), Dax McCarty ($650 k), Randall Leal ($525 k), Hany Mukhtar ($1.05 M) and Daniel Lovitz ($525 k)–that logged 2,200+ combined minutes and shaved expected-goals-against from 1.71 in February friendlies to 1.19 by the Orlando restart.
Their January-February timeline shows how fast you must move: 11 December–discovery claims filed on Leal and Mukhtar; 18 December–Romney acquired from LA Galaxy for $225 k GAM plus a 2021 second-round pick; 7 January–McCarty traded from Chicago for $150 k GAM; 14 January–Godoy $650 k salary bought down with TAM after the Quakes declined his option; 28 January–Lovitz signed new contract with $200 k charge bumped under the cap; 21 February–Willis extended with a $125 k raise sourced from leftover 2019 pool; 6 March–final competitive roster locked two weeks before MLS is Back. The sequence let head coach Gary Smith run the same back-five block in all three group-stage matches, a continuity edge that turned into the third-best shot-suppression rate (7.9 per game) among the 24 teams in the tournament.
Copy the structure: reserve one senior international slot for a TAM-level 10 (Mukhtar), use intra-league trades to keep cash inside MLS, and front-load medicals so you can register the whole group before the first FIFA roster freeze; Nashville 2020 haul cost only $475 k of future GAM, left all three DP tags unused for summer fireworks, and still delivered 1.6 points per game, the best maiden-season clip since Seattle 2009.
Q&A:
How many of the last ten expansion clubs managed to finish above the playoff line in their first regular season?
Four of the ten most recent newcomers Nashville SC 2020, Austin FC 2021, Charlotte FC 2022, and St. Louis CITY SC 2023 booked postseason tickets during year one. The other six landed between 11th and 14th in their conferences, so while a winning record is hardly guaranteed, the odds sit a shade below fifty-fifty.
Why did St. Louis look so dominant while other expansion teams usually leak goals?
They spent their money on a very specific press. Instead of spreading the budget thin, they signed a full XI who had worked together in the German second division or in NCAA programs that play a near-identical 4-4-2 press. That familiarity let them win the ball high, so they conceded only 26 goals, the best mark for a first-year side in MLS history.
Is it smarter to splash cash on one big Designated Player or spread the same pot across three mid-tier veterans?
Data from the last five expansion drafts says spread it. Clubs that split one DP slot into three $600–700 k salaries averaged 1.42 points per match, while teams that sank $6 million into a single star managed 1.08. The reason: depth shows up every week; one ankle sprain from the marquee name and the attack stalls.
How long does the "expansion honeymoon" last before regression hits?
About fourteen months. First-year squads ride adrenaline and unfamiliarity to punch above their weight through early summer the next season, but once opponents have a full year of video, the holes appear. The average points-per-game drop from season-one to season-two is 0.23, roughly an eight-point swing over 34 matches.
Which expansion side should fans watch in 2026 and why?
San Diego, assuming they join. The ownership group already holds a USL team that topped the Western table in 2024, so the academy, training ground, and local rivalries are in place. If they promote coach Landon Donovan core and add two experienced DPs, history says they could replicate St. Louis instant success rather than the usual slow climb.
How many expansion sides have made the playoffs in their very first MLS season, and which ones managed to win a round?
Since 2005, only five newcomers reached the postseason at the first time of asking: Seattle (2009), Portland (2011), Vancouver (2012, via play-in), Orlando (2015, points-per-game after 34-round season shortened by weather) and Nashville (2020, in the pandemic format). Of those, just Seattle and Nashville collected a first-round victory. The Sounders beat Houston on kicks after a 0-0 draw, then lost to LA in the conference semi-final, while Nashville toppled Toronto in a best-of-three series before falling to eventual champion Columbus.
Why do most expansion clubs leak goals during year one even when they spend big on attackers?
Because you can’t buy chemistry in the back line. New franchises enter with 10–12 empty roster slots, so the scouting staff usually chases household names up front to sell tickets, then fills the defensive eight with whoever is still available in the draft, waiver order or the cheaper end of the global market. Centre-backs need weeks of reps to sort out who steps, who covers and how far the line can squeeze up; meanwhile, the expansion side is already a third of the season behind clubs that have played together for years. Add in travel-heavy early schedules (league front-loads road games to let stadium construction finish) and you get the pattern: 18 of the 22 teams added since 2005 allowed more than 1.6 goals per game, and only three posted a negative goal difference better than –5.
Reviews
Dorian
Expansion teams suck cash, choke on turf, blame refs, sell hype, still finish last your "rookie miracle" is my migraine, pay me back for this trash season
Soren
Ah, expansion babies fresh paint, same old flat tire. I cheer, sip stadium IPA, watch them ship goals like FedEx. Owners brag about "culture" midfielders look like they met in an UberPool. Still, I’ll date them: cheap seats, zero expectations, plenty of room to ghost me later.
RogueByte
So the new kids average 1.07 points a game and still sell out while serving overpriced IPA tell me, if you paid $400 to watch a expansion side discover gravity in real time, would you brag about the "experience" or just pretend you were there for the tacos?
Noah Sterling
Fresh blood hits the pitch and the old guard sneers same script since ‘98. I cheer anyway, because nothing juices a Saturday like watching some expansion babies bleed neon while the suits count beans in suites. They tell me expansion clubs flop first year; I say flops sell tickets. A club loses two-thirds of its matches, yet every losing goal still detonates a new bar downtown, still births a chant too rude for radio. That victory for the city, defeat only for accountants. Soccer gods never read spreadsheets; they sniff adrenaline and ticket smoke. I want the new guys reckless, broke, throwing cash at South American kids who can’t spell "playoff" but can nutmeg a veteran into memes. Parity is a bedtime story rich teams read to small ones. I prefer the nightmare where a 19-year-old with a mohawk ruins a franchise marketing plan by missing an open net, then scores from halfway in stoppage. Chaos keeps the league younger than the plastic surgery on its commissioners. So let the nerds debate metrics; I’m here for the circus, the train wrecks painted club colors, the hope auctioned every winter. If they win sooner than logic allows, I’ll tattoo the crest on my shoulder and pretend I believed all along.
Grace
So, fresh franchises bleed cash on shiny foreigners, finish mid-table, and you call this analysis? Tell me, does the league pay per word or per cliché?
Harper Garcia
So, fresh MLS babies crawl in, bleed cash, and we’re supposed to clap? Tell me, darling why does a club that can’t win a single home match still cash expansion checks big enough to fix my potholes?