It has been nearly a full year since Kyrie Irving has played in an NBA game. With his shutdown for the remainder of the year now official, he will not play his next game until at least 19 months post-ACL surgery. That is a lot of time. 19 months ago, the Mavericks were fresh off a run to the NBA Finals. Cooper Flagg was well away from playing his first game at Duke. There was a different president 19 months ago. All of this is to say, when Kyrie Irving suits up (hopefully) on opening night in October, he will not be the player he was against the Sacramento Kings on March 3 of last year. In fact, he may never be that player again. And to expect the Kyrie Irving of old would be misguided.
Irving turns 34 on March 23. In the history of the NBA, there have only been three players who are Irving’s height (6’2”) or shorter to average more than 20 points per game at age 34 or older: Lenny Wilkins, Steph Curry, and Damian Lillard. All three guys are generational talents like Irving is, but none of them were coming off a major injury. In fact, Lillard sustained a major injury (torn achilles) after playing at that level and age for the entire year. When Irving went down, he was averaging almost 25 points a night in 36 minutes. To get back to that point, he would have to be the outlier that Curry is, who averaged over 29 points in his age-34 season. It just doesn’t happen, and the surgical aspect of the situation substantially reduces the likelihood of a return to form.
Recently, another guard who sustained a major injury last spring, Jaden Ivey, spoke with reporters about the impact of his leg surgery after his latest DNP:
Ivey, 24, was a former top-five pick. He averaged 17.1 points at Purdue his sophomore year and got his average up to 17.6 points per game in his third NBA season before sustaining a broken left leg in January 2025. Now, after starting just five games this season, he says his old self is “dead”. It was a somber reminder that real life is not NBA 2K, and these recoveries can take a serious mental toll on players. I am not saying that Irving feels the same way, but if major surgery can impact a guy as young and talented as Ivey, then no one is safe from the ramifications. Not only is history working against him, but the mental hurdle Irving has to overcome is massive, and it only grows as the time between on-court appearances increases.
Despite all of this, there is a little sun peeking through the clouds. Even though Ivey and Irving are small guards who rely on quickness and ball-handling to be effective, there are key differences between them. For one, they did not have the same surgeries. Ivey broke his fibula, which is a much less common injury than the ACL tear Irving sustained. What was once a death sentence, recovering from an ACL injury now feels pretty systematic. And aside from being the better player, Irving has the number one resource for recovering from surgery at his disposal. Klay Thompson missed nearly three full seasons of his prime due to two separate injuries that he sustained back-to-back. If anyone can get Irving to the place he needs to be, both mentally and physically, it is Thompson. So, although Irving will probably never be the player he was, there is reason to hope for it, as my fellow contributor Michael Harris detailed.
I personally do not think Irving will get back to that level. My expectation is very low for his production next season and beyond. I do not view him as a piece of Cooper Flagg’s future, nor a piece you should move mountains to keep. But I will happily take any and every moment above expectation he gives us. Now that Dallas is out of cap hell, Irving is a luxury the Mavericks can afford. He is a locker-room positive, has plentiful experience to pass on to Flagg and the Mavericks’ draft pick this season, and is a reminder of better times. If you expect to see the player we all saw a year ago, you will be disappointed. But if you expect nothing, Irving will have plenty of pleasant surprises.