UFC Cage Locks: Can Hernandez push pace, impose will on Strickland?

The UFC returns to Houston for the first time in four years this weekend when aggressive middleweight contenders clash in a five-round main event.

Former 185-pound champion Sean Strickland returns to action for the first time in a full year to face streaking contender Anthony Hernandez with the winner hoping to make a case to challenge the division’s current titleholder, Khamzat Chimaev, later this year.

Strickland hasn’t fought since losing a five-round unanimous decision to fellow former champ Dricus Du Plessis in their championship rematch at UFC 312 last February. He is also coming off a six-month suspension stemming from his actions at a regional MMA event in Las Vegas last summer while there serving as a cornerman for one of his teammates.

Hernandez is riding an eight-fight winning streak and closing in on a title shot. The 32-year-old has won a performance bonus in three of his past four outings, including his August submission of Roman Dolidze.

Strickland vs. Hernandez headlines a 14-bout lineup at the Toyota Center and all 28 fighters set to compete successfully made weight on Friday.

Philip Rowe was initially one pound over the non-title welterweight limit, weighing 172 pounds ahead of his scheduled matchup with UFC newcomer Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani.

It would’ve been the third miss of Rowe’s UFC career, however the fighter was granted an additional hour and eventually made 170.5 pounds and avoiding a fine.

Below is a look at the projected bout order for Saturday’s UFC Houston card, plus full predictions:

MAIN CARD

— Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (five rounds)

— Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic

— Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa

— Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija

— Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell

— Zachary Reese vs. Michel Pereira

PRELIMINARY CARD

— Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal

— Punahele Soriano vs. Ramiz Brahimaj

— Philip Rowe vs. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

— Ode’ Osbourne vs. Alibi Idiris

— Alden Coria vs. Luis Gurule

— Nora Cornolle vs. Joselyne Edwards

— Jordan Leavitt vs. Yadier del Valle

— Juliana Miller vs. Carli Judice

Ahead of each UFC event in 2026, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON’S PICKS

Cage Lock: Anthony Hernandez -278

Favourite: Alibi Idiris -133

Underdog: Zach Reese +135

Dart Throw: Leal vs. Njokuani goes the distance +450

I believe Hernandez has too many advantages against Strickland to ignore and that he is going to make it a tough night at the office for the former champion. … Idiris had a tough outing in the TUF 33 flyweight finale against Joseph Morales last year, but I saw how skilled he was on the show and believe that his grappling will neutralize Osborne. … Picking Reese is more of a fade against Pereira, who has looked like a shell of his former self as of late. … Leal and Njokuani will be a tactical fight and I think it has a better chance of going the distance than the odds indicate.

DAN’S PICKS

Cage Lock: Yadier Del Valle -400

Favourite: Melquizael Costa -215

Underdog: Uros Medic +180

Dart Throw: Cornolle vs. Edwards ends in submission +650

MIKE’S PICKS

Cage Lock: Carli Judice -900

Favourite: Ramiz Brahimaj -115

Underdog: Dan Ige +180

Dart Throw: Chidi Njokuani by decision +1000

Judice has the shortest odds on the entire card for a reason. I’ve been quite impressed with her young UFC career thus far and I’m not going to overthink my lock this week like I did with the since-released Jailton Almeida a couple weeks ago. … I’ve loved what Costa’s done at 145 lately but Ige has been in there with the best, has never been finished and still has enough in the tank for me to think he’s being undervalued here.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY

Three legs: Hernandez + Del Valle + Judice

Parlay odds: -113 (to win: $88.84)

2026 STANDINGS AFTER 3 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 

2026 record: 1-2 (L2)

2026 winnings: -$110.88 (on $100 bets)

AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (9-3, +8.86 units)

Cage Lock: 2-1 (-$46.99)

Favourite: 3-0 (+$153.72)

Underdog: 3-0 (+$480)

Dart throw: 1-2 (+$300)

DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (6-6, -3.60 units)

Cage Lock: 3-0 (+$41.49)

Favourite: 2-1 (-$21.54)

Underdog: 1-2 (-$80)

Dart throw: 0-3 (-$300)

MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (4-8, -5.92 units)

Cage Lock: 2-1 (-$39.55)

Favourite: 2-1 (+$46.92)

Underdog: 0-3 (-$300)

Dart throw: 0-3 (-$300)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)

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