As we enter the home stretch of the 2025-26 NBA season, there’s no denying that it’s been a topsy-turvy couple of months for the Atlanta Hawks. At the end of November, Atlanta’s record stood at 13-8, they had picked up nine wins in their last twelve outings and were sitting as the five-seed in the East – perched above teams like Boston, Cleveland and Philadelphia in the conference standings.
Now, 11 weeks and 22 losses later, I wouldn’t blame you for wondering whether that late November surge will be remembered as the apex of the Hawks season.
December was not kind to Atlanta, and in retrospect, proved to be a watershed month for the franchise. Amid a nebulous, illness-related absence for Kristaps Porzingis*, as well as an unsuccessful attempt to reintegrate Trae Young into the lineup**, Atlanta managed just three wins in their next 14 games, slipping all the way down to the 10-seed in the East.
*After appearing in 12 out of the Hawks first 21 games, Kristaps Porzingis played just twice in the month of December – scoring 25 points on 9-for-13 shooting (4-for-7 from downtown) in a 1-point loss to Denver on December 5th, then chipping in with 16 points in 17 minutes in a New Years Eve drubbing of the Minnesota Timberwolves.
**Young was sidelined from October 30th to December 17th due to an MCL sprain suffered early in the season. His return to action coincided with a six-game losing streak before the team shut him down and eventually traded him on January 7th.
Atlanta’s defense, which had played a vital role in their early-season success, deserves the brunt of the blame for their December woes. After allowing 113.1 points per 100 possessions through the first 21 games of the season (good for the 11th-ranked defensive unit in the league), the Hawks allowed 119.8 points per 100 possessions in December – a mark which ranked 27th in the league over that span.
While Porzingis’ absence and Young’s presence* did nothing to aid their efforts on the less glamorous end of the floor, looking at the raw shooting numbers, though there wasn’t a significant change in where their opponents were shooting from, the most damaging difference between October/November and December was seen in their opponent’s three-point accuracy – with their opponents converting 37.8% of their looks from the perimeter in the month of December (fifth-highest opponent 3P% over this span) after shooting just 34% through the first 21 games of the season (seventh-lowest opponent 3P% over this span).
*Atlanta allowed an eye-watering 129 points per 100 possessions with Young on the court in December (141 minutes across five games) relative to 116.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench.
In addition to their opponents shooting better from the perimeter, another factor that negatively impacted Atlanta’s defense in December was that they weren’t forcing as many turnovers as they were early on in the season. Per cleaningtheglass, the Hawks pressured their opponents into committing turnovers on 16.2% of their possessions (the fourth-highest rate in the league) through the first 21 games of the season, however in December, that number dropped to 14.2% – slightly below the league average.
After that disastrous December, the first seven weeks of 2026 have been marked by fluidity up and down the roster. Young was shipped off to Washington on January 7th, with CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert coming Atlanta’s way in the trade.
Porzingis continued to play sporadically – suiting up in three out of Atlanta’s first four games of the new year before reclaiming his spot on the injury report due to a bout with left Achilles tendonitis. Atlanta would eventually trade him to Golden State for Jonathan Kuminga and Buddy Hield at the trade deadline on February 5th, bringing the Latvian’s stint in Atlanta to an end after playing in just 17 out of a possible 52 games this season.
With Porzingis’ spot in the rotation up for grabs, the Hawks gave in-house options Mouhamed Gueye and Asa Newell an extended look as the back-up ‘5’, though when neither played impressed, the team went out and signed fourth-year big, Christian Koloko to a two-way contract on January 16th for some additional depth at the position. Koloko got his first taste of action on January 21st, logging 11 minutes in a two-point victory against Memphis, and played valiantly in each of the next six games before being replaced in the rotation by veteran big-man, Jock Landale* – who was acquired by the Hawks on deadline day for cash considerations. Coming out of the All-Star break, the spot appears to be Landale’s to lose.
*Landale had averaged 11.3 points and 6.5 rebounds in 24 minutes per game on 51/38/67 shooting splits (FG/3PT/FT) across 45 appearances (25 starts) for the Memphis Grizzlies this season before being traded to Atlanta.
Still, integrating McCollum and Kispert as well as settling on a back-up ‘5’ weren’t the only rotation questions the Hawks have faced since the calendar flipped. After exploding for a season-high 25 points against New Orleans on January 7th, Zaccharie Risacher missed the next three weeks due to a bone contusion in his left knee. Onyeka Okongwu was sidelined for four games after suffering a gruesome dental fracture against the Celtics on January 28th. Both Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson have missed time due to nagging lower body injuries.
The Hawks were active in the trade market as well. In addition to the transactions outlined above, on February 1st they traded fan-favorite, Vit Krejci, to the Portland Trail Blazers for two future second-round picks and Duop Reath (who was subsequently waived). On February 5th, they flipped Luke Kennard to the Los Angeles Lakers in return for Gabe Vincent and a future second-rounder.
Amid all the changes, the Hawks have gone 10-11 since the beginning of January, and with 26 games remaining in the regular season, find themselves in a precarious position as far as the 2025-26 season is concerned*. With a record of 26-30, they are clinging to the 10-seed in the East – sitting just 1.5 games ahead of Chicago and Milwaukee for a spot in the Play-In tournament.
*Thanks to their front office’s maneuvering, Atlanta has ample cap space this summer.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo slated to return to action for Milwaukee, the Charlotte Hornets surging (9-1 over their last 10 games), and teams like Miami and Orlando still playing hard-nosed hoops, postseason basketball is far from guaranteed for the Hawks. We’ll find out what this team is made of over the next few weeks.
Entering this crucial stretch of the season, here’s my projection of Atlanta’s depth chart, with a look at the updated cap sheet below (salary figures from Spotrac).
Ahead of the home-stretch, these are two burning questions facing the Atlanta Hawks.
What’s wrong with the offense?
While the Hawks have patched things up on defense since December – allowing 113.3 points per 100 possessions since January 1st (similar to their performance through the first 21 games) – their offense has crumbled, with the team managing just 111 points per 100 possessions over this span, a mark which ranks 27th* in the NBA. It would be easy to pin this drop-off on the departure of Trae Young, who, for all of his flaws, remains one of the best offensive floor-raisers in the league, however I would push back on this notion given that the Hawks posted a 115.3 offensive rating between October 31st and December 15th (22 games) when Young was sidelined with an MCL sprain.
*Tied with the Sacramento Kings – never a good sign.
Comparing Atlanta’s offensive performance from that stretch without Young to their offense since January 1st, a few things stand out. First, while the Hawks have continued to play fast, they have actually done a better job taking care of the ball in the new year, posting an offensive turnover rate of 12.6% since January 1st, the fourth-lowest mark in the league and a vast improvement from their early season stretch without Young, when they were committing turnovers on 15.6% of their possessions.
Additionally, while the Hawks free-throw and offensive rebounding rates have remained quite low, the main thing that’s hurt their offense has been the dramatic decline in shooting efficiency – with Atlanta ranking just 22nd in effective field-goal percentage since January 1st after ranking seventh during the early season stretch.
Taking a closer look at their offensive shot profile, while the Hawks have indeed shot slightly worse from the perimeter, the driving factor behind this drop off has been the team’s struggles at the basket. Since January 1st, the Hawks have shot just 62.3% within five feet – the second-worst mark in the league, and a far cry from their rim efficiency from earlier in the season, when they were converting these looks at close to a 70% clip.
Looking at the individual player’s finishing numbers below, the culprits begin to emerge. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, whose finishing wasn’t great to begin with, has shot just 55% at the rim since January 1st. Onyeka Okongwu, who was converting these looks at a 71% clip earlier in the season, has shot just 59% over this span. New addition, Corey Kispert, who has shot 73% at the rim for his career hasn’t been able to replicate this form in Atlanta, shooting just 57% at the rim in a Hawks uniform. Mouhamed Gueye and Zaccharie Risacher have seen significant declines as well, shooting just 52% and 57% respectively since January 1st.
Additionally, while Jalen Johnson has continued to finish at a high rate, he’s seen a significant decline in his rim-attempts over the past few weeks – averaging just 4.3 attempts per game since January 1st compared to 5.8 attempts per game during the early season stretch.
It’s unclear what’s behind this drop off in the team’s finishing ability. The Hawks are playing just as fast, and are getting out in transition at the same exact rate as they were during the early season stretch. If I had to guess, I would say that the fluidity in the rotation as well as the process of integrating their new players took a bit of a toll on the team’s spacing, leading to more difficult attempts at the rim – though if that has indeed been the case, these issues should be ironed out as this new group grows more comfortable playing with each other.
I also think that Jalen Johnson taking 1.5 fewer rim-attempts per game since January 1st is significant, as he is the team’s best rim finisher. If the Hawks are going to turn things around, I’d expect him to be a big part of the improvement – directly (getting to the basket more) or indirectly (using his playmaking prowess to create cleaner looks at the rim for his teammates).
All that to say, this team’s ability to finish at the rim is the no. 1 area to watch for me coming out of the All-Star break.
What will Kuminga bring to the table?
Speaking of rim finishing, it is quite important to note that the Hawks added a dynamic finisher at the trade deadline in 23 year-old Jonathan Kuminga, formerly of the Golden State Warriors. While it’s unclear when Kuminga will make his Hawks debut – he’s been sidelined since January 23rd due to a bone bruise in his left knee – the former no. 7 pick has shot 71.6% at the rim for his career (on 3.6 attempts per game) and should help the Hawks put pressure on the rim on offense.
While Kuminga’s finishing hasn’t been up to his usual standards this season (62.7% in 20 appearances for Golden State), this has been an extremely strange season for the 23 year-old.
Kuminga has long been dissatisfied with his situation in Golden State, where the franchise’s push to maximize the twilight of Steph Curry’s career clashed with their ability/willingness to afford him the runway required to reach his potential. Last year was the final year of Kuminga’s rookie contract, and over the summer, despite Kuminga voicing his desire to play elsewhere, his status as a restricted free agent proved to be a difficult hurdle in negotiations with other teams, and ultimately, he returned to the Warriors on a two-year deal – with a team-option for the second season.
After starting the first 12 games of the 2025-26 season, Kuminga suffered a knee injury, and never found a consistent role when he was cleared to return. He appeared in just eight more games for Golden State, before requesting a trade on January 15th – the first day he was eligible to be traded after signing a new contract this summer.
It was a peculiar situation, and one that was hard to assess from the outside looking in (no matter how hard ESPN tries), but regardless, I did go back and watch most of Kuminga’s actions from this season. The two clips below are just a taste of the level of athleticism that he brings to the table, and despite the down year efficiency-wise, I remain bullish on his finishing ability.
I mean… holy smokes.
Still, it’s important to remember that Kuminga is far from a finished product. A few areas for him to improve on offense include his shot selection, decision making and outside shooting.
As far as the shot selection, I’d like to see Kuminga cut down the number of mid-range attempts he takes and increase the number of rim-attempts as the latter is a more efficient shot. Kuminga’s rim shooting frequency was upwards of 40% in each of his first three seasons, however last year just 31% of his attempts came from this area of the floor, with the number rising to 34.5% this season. Conversely, he’s taken roughly 40% of his looks from the mid-range over the past two seasons. If he can eschew some of these mid-range looks for some more attempts at the rim in Atlanta, I like the fit on offense.
In terms of his decision making, Kuminga posted the highest turnover rate of his career (4.7 turnovers per 100 possessions) this season in Golden State – with many of these turnovers coming down to simply making a bad read, or losing control of the ball on the gather*. Given how fast Atlanta plays, how Kuminga finds the balance between being aggressive on offense and taking care of the ball will be an important area to watch when he returns to the court.
*To be frank, they looked like turnovers one might expect to see from a rookie forward, not a fifth-year player.
Last but not least, Kuminga’s outside shot has been fairly inconsistent throughout his career (33.1% on 4 attempts per 75 possessions), and while I don’t expect him to suddenly evolve into a high-volume outside shooter in Atlanta, it would be nice to see some improvement in this area before the team makes a decision on his second-year option.
On the defensive side of the ball, Kuminga has the athletic tools to be a high-level defender and has ranked in the 77th percentile or better in defensive-EPM in each of the past three seasons per dunksandthrees. While his steal/block rates have ranked right around the average for his position, he has ranked in the 75th percentile or better in Bball-Index’s defensive positional versatility metric (indicating the extent to which he guarded various positions) and has rated favorably in their perimeter isolation defensive metric in each year after his rookie season. He won’t be a liability on the defensive end.
Atlanta will have to wait a little longer to see Kuminga in action – as it was announced yesterday that he is ‘progressing’ in his recovery from a bone bruise in his left knee and will be re-evaluated in one week. Given how strange his situation was in Golden State, Kuminga is viewed as one of the most enigmatic players in the entire league, and will have a lot to prove over the final eight weeks of the 2025-26 season.
Count him out at your own risk.