Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
As the season winds down, the bubble becomes a dangerous place. With the Selection Show just 25 days away, teams are fighting to boost their resumes in order to earn one of the coveted at-large bids.
Things change quickly, but here’s how the bubble looks with limited time left in the regular season to work toward a bid:
| Last four byes | Last four in | First four out | Next four out |
|---|---|---|---|
Iowa State | Richmond | Virginia | Utah |
Villanova | Princeton | Arizona State | California |
Colorado | Virginia Tech | Stanford | South Dakota State |
Syracuse | Clemson | Kansas | Kansas State |
Iowa State
The Cyclones are in great shape. Despite losing to BYU last week, Iowa State is the top bubble team, which means it would earn a bye in the NCAA Tournament, avoiding the First Four games. Even better news is the return of Addy Brown, who is set to play against Arizona State on Wednesday night. Brown has been out since the Cyclones’ 72-70 loss to Baylor on Jan. 4. Without Brown, they missed crucial offensive depth, relying too much on Audi Crooks and Jada Williams to make things happen. They went on a five-game losing streak in her absence, but with Brown, the Cyclones should be competitive in their last four regular-season games against Arizona State, TCU, Oklahoma State and Kansas State.
Think it’s about time to retire the notebook… See you tomorrow cyclone nation 😏🌪️ pic.twitter.com/RrbJU77Qj1
— Addy Brown (@Addy_Brown24) February 18, 2026
Colorado
The Buffs escaped a must-win game against Arizona on Tuesday thanks to a late-game rally. A loss to the 11-15 (2-13 Big 12) Wildcats would have pushed Colorado to the outside of the bubble. Colorado has won seven of its last eight games, including an 80-79 upset of TCU on Feb. 8. That win only looks stronger after the Horned Frogs defeated Baylor on Thursday to take first place in the Big 12.
Richmond: Had Richmond defeated George Mason on Monday, the Spiders would have been in the “last four byes” group. Still, being among the last four in is still a win for the Spiders. One loss can derail a mid-major team’s quest for an at-large bid, but because George Mason is also strong (12-2 in the A-10, 63rd in the NET and 49th in strength of schedule), the Spiders avoid disaster.
Princeton
I’ve said it before: Bracketology is volatile. It’s even more volatile for mid-majors, which is exactly how Princeton, a team that was once in the conversation to host in the first round, is now on the bubble. All it took was two losses to Columbia (the current Ivy automatic qualifier) for the Tigers to end up here. The Tigers are safe (for now) because of their overall consistency this season. They’ve suffered just three losses – none of them bad, including a loss to Maryland. Two Quad 1 wins and two Quad 2 wins also help their case. As of now, the Ivy League is looking like a two-bid conference, which is bad news for other bubble squads.
Clemson
Two things are working in Clemson’s favor. First, the Tigers didn’t shy away from tough competition early, playing South Carolina, Louisville, Michigan State and Alabama before conference play began. Second, they have two Quad 1 wins against NC State and Notre Dame. If Clemson upsets Duke on Sunday, that would ensure a bid. That’s a tough task, but more in reach is defeating Cal and Stanford (two other bubble teams) to close out the regular season with a resume boost.
Ready for March 🔒 pic.twitter.com/SutSyUwpgM
— Clemson Women’s Basketball (@ClemsonWBB) February 14, 2026
Stanford
Being 5-9 in the ACC, a conference that isn’t particularly strong, already makes Stanford a hard sell for the committee. The Cardinal have also lost seven of their last eight games – remember, the committee values late-season results over early-season outcomes – and haven’t won any of their head-to-head matchups with fellow bubble squads. Stanford remains on the bubble thanks only to nonconference wins over Washington and Oregon, and an early ACC victory over North Carolina. Stanford likely needs to make a deep ACC tournament run in order to avoid missing March Madness for the second straight season.
Utah
At their peak, the Utes certainly look like an NCAA Tournament squad. They have signature wins against TCU and West Virginia, but they lack consistency, losing six of their last 10 games. Utah hasn’t lost any Quad 3 or 4 games, which is a positive, but losses to other bubble teams, like Kansas State, Arizona State and BYU hurt its case. Ultimately, other teams on this list have better resumes.
Kansas State
The Wildcats are in a similar position to Utah, but their lack of consistency has been even more chaotic. They have great wins against Columbia, Ole Miss and Texas Tech, but also four Quad 3 losses and even a Quad 4 loss. Those upset wins, plus the ninth-best strength of schedule in the country, are enough to keep 14-13 Kansas State in the conversation, but not enough for a bid.
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This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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