Clemson travels to Winston-Salem for a must-win game against Wake Forest. Clemson is looking to snap their second two-game losing streak of the year. The last time they lost two straight was against BYU and Alabama and they responded by winning nine-in-a-row. KenPom gives the Tigers a 57% chance to beat the Demon Deacons despite them riding a their first 2-game win streak of ACC play. To help us preview this game we connected with my friend, former Blogger So Dear Editor Robert Reinhard.
Ryan Kantor: The Demon Deacons have settled into the undesirable spot of being too bad give you real hope, but too good to completely check-out and assume there will be a major reset next season. How has the Coach Forbes era been for Deacon fans and where do you think it is headed?
Robert Reinhard: The Forbes Era is a divisive topic for Wake Forest fans. I believe everyone would acknowledge that he has clearly elevated the program compared to where we were under Jeff Bzdelik and Danny Manning. If you exclude Forbes’ first year at Wake since he was hired during COVID and didn’t get to meet his players in person until the summer, his average Ken Pom rating is 59. That same average for Manning’s final 5 seasons at Wake is 104. Forbes also has 4 straight seasons of double-digit ACC wins, while Manning failed to do that even once.
The clear knock on Forbes is that despite elevating the program, he is in year six and has not made the NCAA Tournament. Wake has been extremely close during at least two of his seasons, but in both seasons lost to some teams they should not have down the stretch, and that ultimately cost them bids. If you give the ‘22 and ‘24 teams just one more win each, you’re looking at the Forbes’ tenure much differently.
I do not believe Wake is going to fire him, nor do I believe they should. While his coaching performance has not been perfect this year, Wake is approximately 14th in the ACC roster spend (rev share + NIL) this season. Our athletic director, rightfully so, is going to consider that when evaluating the job that Forbes has done.
While it’s easy to spend someone else’s money, I believe Wake needs to make a much bigger commitment to our basketball program next year. I promise that while they could end up getting a coach in the future who turns out to be better than Forbes, they will not get one who has a better incoming resume. He won at least 24 games during each of his 5 seasons at East Tennessee State, including 2 Conference Championships and NCAA Tournament Appearances. Prior to that he had assistant coaching roles at places such as Wichita State, Tennessee, and Texas A&M.
RK: This year’s Wake Forest squad is headlined by Juke Harris who is averaging 21 points per game. He was at the free throw line all day in the win over Stanford. Tell us about his game.
RR: Juke Harris is one of the most improved players in the country. I thought he could make a jump this season, but did not anticipate him becoming a potential 1st Team All-ACC guy. He has really nice size for the 3 at 6’7″. He is a slasher who can draw contact and also finish around the basket, but he’s also knocked down 36% of his 3’s and has made more than 2.5 3’s per contest. He’s not an elite defender, but he is solid and is a very good defensive rebounder. He will clearly be at the top of Brad Brownell’s scouting report.
RK: Following the Tigers’ perfect West Coast trip, they were 10-1 and tied for first place in the ACC. Then they went 0-2 this past week. They played their worst game of their year against VT. Then at Duke, their offense looked broken. Clemson guards, sans Ace Buckner, have been especially cold as Dillon Hunter, Butta Johnson, and Jestin Porter have a combined 14 points across the two losses.
As a result, Clemson is in a war for a top four seed and double-bye in the ACC tournament and find themselves at a pivotal point of their season. What sort of defensive resistance will the Deacons provide as Clemson looks to get the offense back on track?
RR: Defense has not been a strength of this team, particularly in conference play. That is because Wake has been dead last in ACC play in offensive rebounding % allowed. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen us play good initial defense just to give up an offensive rebound that leads to an easy put back or a kick out for an open three. It’s demoralizing. I often find myself just saying “grab the ball!” It has improved in the past week, but the rebounding will absolutely be tested against this Clemson team.
That’s not to say that’s our only problem. We played poor initial defense against NC State, helped off of 3-point shooters, and allowed 3-point looks that were too easy.
If Wake is playing good defense, then it’s going to be about forcing turnovers and then hopefully converting in transition. Clemson is pretty good at taking care of the ball, so that’s a stat to watch out for.
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RK: Clemson’s success is built around having three good bigs they can rotate down low. Godfrey brings strength and post-moves, Welling brings height and above-the-rim athleticism, and Davidson brings a shooting touch. How does Wake Forest counter that? Is Clemson’s best path to victory the usual recipe of attacking through the post? What’s Wake Forest’s best path?
RR: Not a ton of options to provide good counters to that. I wouldn’t be surprised if we try to occasionally double, because playing straight up the entire game probably isn’t a winning strategy. Outside of coverage, I believe we’re going to have to rebound as a team and send our wings in to help secure the misses. But I’d agree that Clemson’s best path to victory is playing through the post and crashing the offensive glass.
Wake’s best path to victory is going to have to start on defense. Wake cannot give Clemson too many additional chances on offense, because I get the sense it could be hard to keep up due to Clemson’s stout defense. Part of that too will be finding ways to generate live ball turnovers and scoring in transition, so that you don’t have to go against a set Clemson defense all day.
Outside of that, Wake is going to need players like Mekhi Mason to continue stepping up and knocking down 3-point attempts. Not only will that score points, but him stretching the floor could open up more driving room for Juke Harris to attack. We are also going to need to be strong with the ball against Clemson’s physicality.