Richie Saunders announced Sunday that he tore his ACL vs Colorado and will miss the remainder of the season.
There’s no way to spin this — BYU is worse without Richie and can’t replace him no matter how hard they scheme. Richie is one of the best shooters in the country and his motor is “uncommon”, as Kevin Young likes to call it. He also averages six boards per game and and is second on the team in offensive rebounds. Beyond that, he is the veteran leader on the team.
BYU has shown cracks in the armor the last month after a 16-1 start, losing 5 of 6 before winning their last two. BYU did beat Colorado without Richie Saunders, and while Colorado isn’t very good, BYU players knew at halftime the severity of Richie’s injury and were able to hold on despite the emotional blow of contemplating what the rest of the season will look like without Richie.
What Should Expectations be for the Team?
This is no silver lining, but without Richie expectations for BYU have been blown up. BYU still has AJ Dybantsa and he will draw national attention, but gone are any Final Four talks. BYU looked like a team that would have to battle to just make the Sweet 16, and now those expectations are gone too. None of the final six regular season games are gimmes for BYU. BYU plays three top 15 teams, a likely tourney team in UCF at home, and two Quad 1 road games at West Virginia and Cincinnati. I don’t think BYU goes 0-6, but with Richie 5-1 seemed like a possibility if things were clicking. Now, you’d be happy with 3-3.
My hope for this team is to get to March Madness without more injuries and at least be competitive until then. You have AJ Dybantsa. With AJ BYU has a fighting chance versus any team in a one-game situation. AJ could look like the #1 pick and other players could step up in various situations to have career games. It happens every year. And that’s what BYU will need to advance in March. A Sweet 16 finish before the season would have felt a bit hollow, now that would be a resounding success and you can ask the “what if Richie” question for the rest of eternity.
AJ Dybantsa’s and Rob Wright’s Roles
Kevin Young and the coaching staff will have a few days to scheme things up before travelling to Arizona Wednesday. We got a taste of what BYU could look like versus Colorado. AJ Dybantsa played point guard with heavy usage rate and Rob Wright tagged team him as the secondary ball handler and creator. AJ shot just 6-20, but he had 8 assists and 13 boards. He drew SO much attention without Richie and had some success finding guys.
We are about to get generational usage rates from AJ. Usage rate assigns credit or blame to a player when his actions end a possession, either by making a shot (FG or FT), missing a shot that isn’t rebounded by the offense, or committing a turnover. Since KenPom started tracking usage rate (percent of possessions used) in 2003, no player has had a usage rate over a season greater than 40%. Jimmer in 2010-2011 had a usage rate of 36.4%. AJ’s this season has been 32.3% (#15 in country) and in Big 12 play its #1 in the conference (33.5%). AJ’s usage rate versus Colorado was 40%. Rob Wright’s was 31%, which is above his season average of 25%. Richie’s usage rate was 25%, and most of that will go to Rob and AJ.
I forsee AJ being the defacto point guard. He draws the most attention, and BYU will count on his playmaking ability to create for himself or find others when he is double and triple teamed. Rob Wright is shooting a sizzling 46% from three, and I anticipate KY tries to get him in more spot up three opportunities and continue to use him as a secondary creator getting to the basket to complement AJ.
BYU is going to need to need both players to average 25+ points, and many nights 30+, the rest of the way.
What Players Will Take Richie’s Minutes?
Alexsej Kostic, Tyler Mrus, Khadim Mboup, and Mihailo Boskovic all stand to get more minutes. I think Kostic and Mboup will be the first beneficiaries. Kostic hit a big shot versus Colorado in overtime, and has shown ability as a catch and shoot guy. Mrus is a little bit bigger, but Kostic can handle the ball a bit and has seemed more comfortable than Tyler. Tyler will get minutes, but I envision Kostic getting more to start. If Kostic can hit open shots then he will be an asset.
I also like the idea of Mboup getting more minutes. Mboup on the wing clutters the floor on offense, but he can get second chance points and gives real length on defense for someone that can guard 1-5. The team isn’t going to be better with Richie, but having Mboup play more minutes can at least give BYU more of a defensive identity.
Kennard Davis will also be asked to take a bigger role. Davis has struggled with his shot this season and has been been an afterthought after the Big 3, now all of a sudden he has a chance to claim a bigger role out of necessity. Taking a glass half full approach, Davis could perform better now that he has more consistent shots coming his way. Davis is shooting just 29% from three this season, but shot 38% last season at Southern Illinois.
What’s Next?
BYU does not get to easy into life without Richie. They travel to Arizona Wednesday and host Iowa State Saturday. Arizona was #1 going into the week and dropped their first two games of the season this week. Arizona could absolutely crush BYU. They are the better team and may come out angry after losing their last two. The Wildcats could also be shorthanded. Star freshman Koa Peat left Saturday’s game with a lower leg injury, and freshman Dwayne Aristode missed the game with an illness; Tommy Lloyd said he could miss the BYU game too. Arizona has other great players, but if those two are out that leaves them with six rotation players. I could see a blowout, but I could also see a close game against a shorthanded Arizona team where BYU’s rotation players hit shots after Arizona starts the game selling out to stop AJ.
Things could be rough. But the silver lining for BYU is that you have the potential #1 pick in AJ Dybantsa and an All-Big 12 player in Rob Wright. Those players will give BYU a puncher’s chance in March. And that’s what will give a glimmer of hope these last weeks of the season.